Venture capitalists and movie producers

Venture capitalists and movie producers:  Gary Rivlin's excellent article in Sunday's New York Times ("So You Want to Be a Venture Capitalist" May 22nd, 2005 www.nytimes.com ) raises some fundamental questions about predictors of success in the venture capital industry.   Like sports scouts and movie producers, institutional investors backing new venture capital funds have to be prepared to acknowledge that there is more "art" than "science" in predicting the next winner.   By definition, emerging trends change, and someone who spotted the last "next big thing" will not be well-positioned to spot the next next big thing.    While part of entire capital activity (like movie producers) is technical (e.g. cost control, team-building, strategic financing, management of investors), some of it is also about timing and scanning the horizon.    Successful venture capital firms will continue to mix the two, finding the next Quentin Tarantino,  but remembering what it is the allows Clint Eastwood to be continuingly successful.